Freight Market Update – October 2025
By Think Global Logistics
Global Overview
Freight market conditions remain volatile across major trade lanes. Spot rates continue to soften due to weaker demand and surplus vessel capacity, while geopolitical tensions and new regulations create uncertainty. The Drewry WCI has fallen 6% week-on-week to US$1,913/FEU, marking its 14th straight weekly drop.
Key risks include Red Sea security incidents, Taiwan Strait tensions, and Poland–Belarus rail disruptions. Meanwhile, weather disruptions, such as Typhoon Ragasa , have added 5–7 days of delay to South China routes. Around 11% of global sailings were blanked over Golden Week.
Australia & New Zealand
Rates on China → AU lanes sit around US$2,518/FEU, though carriers have announced rate restorations (US$300/TEU, US$600/FEU) effective 15 October.
From mid-October, ANL and CMA CGM will also apply new booking amendment fees, and container shortages remain across 20GP, 20RF, and 40RF equipment.
Local port congestion is mild to moderate across Australia, while NZ ports face longer vessel turnarounds due to bunching and weather delays.
New service additions (MSC Eagle, OOCL Sydney rail extensions) are expected to improve capacity in 2026.
Trade Outlook
Global trade grew modestly in the first half of 2025, driven by intra-East Asia flows and steady U.S. demand, but tariff changes and supply-side expansion continue to pressure rates.
In Australia, commodities and agricultural exports remain strong, though investment and demand from key trading partners are slowing.
Livestock exports are tightening space toward year-end.
Reliability & Delays
- Global on-time arrivals: 65.2%
- Average delay: 4.68 days
- South China ports (Yantian, Shekou, Nansha): +5–7 days
- Europe: Delays linked to port maintenance and rail constraints
- Australia/NZ: Weather causing vessel bunching
Shippers should plan for extended lead times, make early bookings, and be flexible with routing options.
Air Freight
The India–US market has softened following the implementation of tariffs, but Sydney’s new cargo infrastructure has expanded handling capacity to around 250,000 tonnes annually.
Demand is expected to grow at ~4% per year to 2030, exceeding freighter fleet growth and maintaining a structurally tight market.
Shippers should secure space early ahead of the Q4–Q1 peak.
Sustainability & Infrastructure
The industry continues to move toward IMO’s Net Zero 2050 goals, with emissions-reduction milestones set for 2030 and 2040.
Australia is also seeing significant rail and intermodal investments, such as Patrick’s Sydney AutoRail and MEDLOG Minto ECP, which are improving landside efficiency and reducing road congestion.
What This Means for You
- Book early to secure capacity and equipment, especially in Asia–AU.
- Monitor carrier rate restorations and fees.
- Build in buffer times for weather and congestion.
- Stay flexible — consider alternate modes or routings.
- Review contracts to include sustainability and regulatory clauses.
TGL Insight
At Think Global Logistics, we know freight doesn’t move on data alone it moves on strategy, timing, and trust.
Our team continuously tracks these global market shifts to help our clients stay ahead of disruptions, secure the best routing options, and maintain cost efficiency even in volatile conditions.
If you need help navigating current freight challenges or planning your Q4 shipments, reach out to your TGL representative or contact us at
📞 AU: 1300 845 845 | 🌐 www.thinkgloballogistics.com